CPA or revenue share when 25% of players leave each month
Affiliates
With 25% of players leaving each month, a 35% revenue share on 80 a month earns 112 over two years against a CPA of 200, never catching it up.
- 112revenue share over two years
- 112revenue share over a lifetime
- 4.0average months a player stays
Churn Impact on Revenue Models
High monthly churn limits the total value a player generates. With a quarter of players leaving each month, the average stay is short. The table below shows cumulative earnings for both models. A fixed CPA provides immediate capital. Revenue share accrues slowly as the player base shrinks. Over two years, the revenue share total remains below the CPA amount. This gap persists because few players remain active long enough to generate significant ongoing revenue. Affiliates must weigh immediate cash against long-term potential when churn is high. Compliance teams should consult the regulation tracker for relevant jurisdictional requirements.
| After | CPA | Revenue share, cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Month 3 | 200 | 65 |
| Month 6 | 200 | 92 |
| Month 12 | 200 | 108 |
| Month 24 | 200 | 112 |
| Month 36 | 200 | 112 |
Understanding the Crossover Point
The crossover month marks when cumulative revenue share earnings equal the CPA amount. In this scenario, the revenue share does not catch up to the CPA within the observed period. The average player stays for four months. This short lifespan prevents the revenue share from accumulating enough value to surpass the upfront payment. The table above illustrates this static difference. If churn were lower, the crossover point would occur sooner. High churn caps the lifetime value of each referred player, making the fixed CPA more attractive for immediate liquidity.
Contract Terms and Adjustments
Specific contract clauses alter the final payout calculation. Negative carryover reduces the effective revenue share percentage. Administrative fees further diminish the net amount received. These deductions apply to the remaining active players each month. Since the player base declines rapidly, these fees impact a smaller pool over time. Affiliates should calculate net revenue after all deductions. The gross revenue share percentage may appear higher than the churn rate, but net earnings depend on actual retention. Reviewing these terms ensures accurate forecasting of affiliate income.
Questions
Why does high churn favor CPA?
High churn shortens the player's active period. This limits the total revenue generated through share models. A fixed CPA provides immediate value before the player leaves. The revenue share accumulates too slowly to match the upfront payment.
What is the crossover month?
It is the point where cumulative revenue share earnings equal the CPA amount. With high churn, this point may not be reached within a standard two-year period. The revenue share total remains lower than the CPA throughout the observed timeframe.
How do fees affect revenue share?
Negative carryover and admin fees reduce the net payout. These deductions apply to the shrinking pool of active players. Affiliates must account for these costs when comparing against fixed CPA offers to determine true profitability.
Does player profile change the outcome?
The player profile illustrates the formula. Actual results depend on specific retention rates and revenue figures. Affiliates should input their own data into the calculator to see how their specific churn rates impact earnings.
Every figure on this page is computed by code from standard industry formulas and the facts of our regulation tracker, each checked a second way. See the methodology.